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Monday, March 29, 2010

Vital Signs

We hear and read a lot about vitality.  Everyone involved with the design, installation, validation, and operation of PTC systems, and that is just about everyone, knows some things are vital things, and some things are non-vital things.  Some processes are vital and other processes are non-vital.  Some logic is vital, and other logic is non-vital.

But what makes some logic vital and other non-vital in railroad operations?

Vital logic is the process by which overlapping authorities for train movements are prevented.  More than prevented, such overlapping authorities, allowing more than one train to be in the same place at the same time, are eliminated and excluded from the operating environment.                                            

 

Back in the day before "back in the day" was a phrase used by those too young to actually recall back in the day, the vital logic of the railroad was embedded in that quaint, prosaic pamphlet called the book of operating rules.  

 

Vital logic is still embedded in those books, those rules.  Those too young to recall back in the day may think that vital logic is the god called algorithm that we've placed into machines to make everything fail-safe. But it is not.  The algorithm represents the vital logic, is derived from the vital logic that was used to write the rules; from the vital logic that would deliver us all from the evil of the dreaded "lap order."

 

It's a simple logic with a simple format.  If railroading were only for geniuses, I wouldn't be this good at it.  And I am very, very good.

 

Most complicated things start with a simple logic.  The complications arise when we have to reconcile all the competing demands and needs of the operation with the vital logic.

 

The format of the logic is the basic logic of conditions: "If....., then...." This logic governs everything from 26c air brake valves to cab signal systems.

If X.....[train 1, HRC 2, MOW Foreman Smith] has authority, then Y [all trains not 1, HRCs not 2, all MOW Foremen not Smith] cannot have authority that overlaps with the already established authority.

 

Simple.  If....then.  

 

The rules in our operating rule books are structured with this logic of conditions, from the general rules of conduct-- [If] governed by these rules, [then] employees must have a current copy they can refer to while on duty-- which establish the railroad's authority over the conduct of its employees, to those rules governing exceptions to the normal operation of equipment--[If] a signal is improperly displayed or absent from the place from which it is normally shown, [then] the signal must be regarded as displaying its most restrictive indication-- to those rules governing the issuance of written authority for the movement of trains--[If] issuing a Form...., [then] the form must be legible without erasure of alteration.

 

While the book of operating rules reads as a system of requirements-- what must be done, what is necessary-- in essence the rules are a system of negations, determining through exclusion and elimination what can be done, and the "if" becomes to mean before and after.

[If X movement is authorized] Before X movement is authorized, it is required that no other conflicting movement has been authorized.

[If] After X movement is authorized, no other conflicting movement may be authorized.

It all comes down to if....then.   If 1, then 0.  It all becomes the condition of 1s and 0s.  Our prosaic analog vital logic is more than just compatible with its digital representation, it is, in its very essence a counting process.

 

Being what we are, peculiar creatures, with railroad operating officers more peculiar than most, no sooner do we recognize the core to our vital logic, the counting of 1s and 0s, than we want to go beyond 1s and 0s. If 1, then 0 is a vital logic, but what about those other vital processes of the railroad, providing service, and  making money in so doing?  If 1, why not more than 1, why not n trains?  If n trains, then n+1 trains. 

 

How can we do this without degrading the logic vital to safe train operations?  We confine the logic.  We segment it.  We assign it to discrete packages of time and space. We sectionalize.  We block.

 

We sectionalize the railroad into lines east, lines west, regions, divisions, districts, lines, branches, and we divide the tracks into defined sections called blocks.  We define block as a section of track the use of which is controlled by block signals, either automatic or manual, either fixed wayside or cab displayed or both.

Then we install signal systems controlling the entrance, operation, and exit of trains in those sections we call blocks.  

And then? Then we have mastered time and space as best we know how, by measuring them. With the ability to measure, we can meter, we can regulate the flow of trains in compliance with the vital logic.  That regulation of movement is nothing other than the schedule for train operations.

 

We break the operation and systems into tasks, components, items, procedures in order to provide a schedule for each, so that each and the sum of all can obtain an authority for execution not in conflict with any other authorities.

 

For scheduling of n or n+1 trains which are to operate safely, regulated by the vital logic of the railroad, all tasks that precede, support, and facilitate those trains must also be scheduled.  So we break down, dis-integrate the various tasks, so that we might reintegrate the results of those tasks in the safe operation of n+1 trains.

 

This reintegration requires oversight, a super-vision, a vision that moves beyond the individual tasks with their individual authorities; a vision that moves beyond the n+1 trains to grasp the real product of the railroad, service delivery.

 

The apparent contradiction between the requirements of the vital logic of the railroad, and increased, improved service is just that.. only apparent.  With the understanding of the vital logic, comes the ability to schedule, analyze, regulate-- to optimize the actual operation of the railroad. 

 

[If] we are railroading, [then] we engage in a calculus, a series of successive, self-aware approximations, each using the result of previous approximations to enhance the operating capacity of the railroad under the protection afforded by the vital logic.  In this calculus, technology does not substitute for supervision, but provides the platform, the elevation necessary for the super-vision. In this calculus, there is not conflict between safety and efficiency.  An unsafe railroad cannot be an efficient railroad as resources are not being properly scheduled.  An efficient railroad cannot be an unsafe railroad as efficiency requires the optimum use of assets.  In this calculus, the vital logic of the railroad is the business of railroading.

 

                                                                                                                   

 

7:09 pm edt 

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Big Deal On Michigan Avenue
Last week, APTA held its annual rail conference in Chicago.  The "home terminal" for the conference was the now Hilton, formerly Conrad Hilton,  Hotel on Michigan Avenue.

I was born, raised, and hired out in Chicago. I have repressed most of those memories with some success, so I didn't realize where I was, the former Conrad Hilton Hotel, until I was actually there, inside the hotel's Grand Ballroom, and then it struck me.

"You know what?" I said to my wife who had accompanied me for the purpose of visiting several close friends [unlike myself, my wife actually makes, and maintains, friendships], "The last time I was this close to this hotel I was being chased by the police."

My wife, looking around at the luxury of the Grand Ballroom, replied, " I can see why."

I meant, of course, the Democratic Convention of 1968.  She meant everything else.

Not that I have any regrets, although she probably does.  But that's life.

Anyway, the conference was, as conferences are meant to be, enthusiastic, upbeat, optimistic, eager over the prospects for our industry, and I too, being part of that industry, am enthusiastic, upbeat, optimistic, eager about our future prospects despite the fact that a crusty, cynical, jaded heart beats underneath my perpetual sunny smile and "glad to meet you" exterior. 

There's a little problem, called money. 

When just a youth, I once made the mistake of asking my girlfriend  "what's money to a relationship like ours?"  

"Concrete," she answered.  Obviously, I am attracted to intelligent women.

Actually, I think I'm more enthusiastic about some things than many in the industry and less enthusiastic than many about other things.  I am really enthusiastic about PTC.  In fact, I might be the most enthusiastic person I know when it comes to PTC, an enthusiasm that is shared, I suspect, by  those who have had the experience of answering the phone at 10 PM and getting the news that nobody ever wants to get.

And I think I'm less enthusiastic about High Speed Rail than many in the industry.   Not that I'm not all in favor of, don't positively love HSR.  I am and I do.  Love it.  Use it.  Use the Eurostar between Paris and London.  The TGV in France.  Thalys between Brussels and Paris.  The high speed between Milan and Bologna.  Love it.

But there's this thing called money...ask my former girlfriend, who now lives in California, San Francisco, I think.

The APTA Rail Conference was very enthusiastic about HSR, but we must keep in mind that most of those attending the APTA Conference were consultants, contractors, design and engineering firms.  Vendors.  No offense intended.

The Obama administration has earmarked $8 billion in the ARRA for the study and development of HSR corridors in the US, with a further $1 billion to follow in each of the next 5 years. I believe that if asked, the APTA conference general session would have sung a verse or two of "Happy Days Are Here Again."

I don't sing.  I can dance.  I had to dance, attending the University of Michigan, 40 miles from Detroit, during the peak of the Motown era, but I'm not a singer.  Me?  Looking around at the economy, I might be dancing to the tune of "The Dead Cat Bounce."

Eight billion dollars is a lot of money.  Even for my ex-girlfriend.  But when it comes to HSR, it's not really all that much.  A dollar just doesn't go as far as it once did, especially when operating speed targets are 220-240 mph.

The great state of Florida has plans for  HSR corridor operations between Orlando and Tampa.  With a geography more friendly to controlling engineering costs, the estimated cost per mile for the corridor still weights in at approximately $27 million per mile.

And then there's California, where my ex-girlfriend, she of the concrete love, lives.  California is serious about HSR, so serious it has authorized a bond issue, backed by the full faith and credit of the state and the tax payments of its citizens.  California is currently facing a $24 billion deficit, but this is the US of A, and California of all places.  We think no little thoughts.  California.  The Golden State. Surf City.  Jan and Dean.  San Joaquin Valley. Pelican Bay. Low-riders.    Hollywood.   Big trees.  Earthquakes.  Mudslides.  Real estate.  
 
No little thoughts can be permitted when it comes to HSR, where costs for the LA-San Francisco HSR corridor are estimated in the $70 million per mile range.  Seriously. 500 miles LA-SF;  $34 billion.  I'm rounding up, not making it up. 

And I'm all for it, except...

Except you have to do it right, and I'm a bit concerned.  I'm a bit concerned when the California plan calls for peak hour service in the corridor with 6 minute head-ways in each direction between the two cities.  I'm a bit concerned when I estimate the off peak service at 15-20 minute headways based on the ridership projections for 2030.

Why am I concerned? I'm concerned since, with a dedicated right-of-way, with the complete separation of this service from other rail service, the HSR authorities' access to the accumulated and ongoing expertise of US railroading will be limited.  I'm concerned because I think that the separation of passenger and commuter services from the freight railroads has already reduced the experience and expertise of the operating personnel, including the operating officers, in the passenger and commuter services.

I'm concerned that, perhaps, the HSR agencies will rely a bit too much on the studies provided by the consultants and the designers.  I'm concerned, because you get what you pay for, that when the HSR agencies ask for economies, cost savings, reductions, they will get exactly what they asked for without a thorough understanding of the impacts on operating performance.  Every operating decision is a financial decision.  We were taught that.  But how many realize that every financial decision is an operating decision?

I'm concerned that with those peak and off peak head-ways, there simply is no way to perform the necessary track maintenance on a two track system.  At a Q&A session, the California HSR presenter stated the studies have shown with "limited" areas of 3rd track, maintenance can be performed properly on the remaining 2 track system.   I'm concerned.

I'm concerned because with a 2.5 hour trip time, and with peak periods lasting for 3 hours, with turn around times on HSR trainsets nowhere near what can be achieved in lower speed EMU operations, I estimate that there must be 35 HSR trainsets at both LA and San Francisco in order provide the peak and the first hour of post-peak service.

I believe that HSR peak service will required terminals with at least 12 platform tracks, 5-6 running or "feeder" tracks from main lines andyards to the passenger terminal, with yards themselves capable of storing 30-40 trainsets.  That's some big interlocking we're talking about.  Even for California.

Not that I don't think any of this is impossible; can't be done; shouldn't be done.  I just want it done right. Concretely.  And that is going to take more than money.  It's going to take execution

Matt Rose of the BNSF has said that he hopes the HSR is dedicated to a single showcase project. He's right. 

Always liked the Santa Fe.  That railroad has always exhibited its commitment to the industry as an industry whether it be freight service, passenger service, and now high speed rail.

DMS
06/23/09



11:33 am edt 

Monday, May 25, 2009

Hustle and Flow on the Railroad
I'm all for Positive Train Control.  Was for it in 1986 when a rear end collision at Vern on Metro North killed the engineer of a deadhead equipment train as he slammed into the rear of a another, stopped, deadhead equipment train.

I was for it then because that was before Metro North had installed cab signal/train control over its entire system, and "no code" which meant "restricted speed" in train control territory meant nothing, literally, if the ATC was not engaged, no code and non-coded territory being indistinguishable to the on-board apparatus. 

The forward, stopped, deadhead move was occupying the block directly in advance of the of the interlocking signal controlling entrance to the "ATC Mode Forward" territory.   And if the interlocking signal was at restricting,and if the engineer failed to engage the ATC, and if the block were occupied, if there was no code, the engineer could operate at any speed without triggering a penalty brake application.

I was for it in 1997 when an engineer on  locomotives scheduled for service as a work train disengaged the ATC while shoving to the work zone, passing a stop signal at 37 miles an hour.  I remember walking the route, measuring off the distance from the stopped locomotives to the interlocking signal and thinking "WTF?  Is this guy nuts?  He must have been going 40 mph.  And the conductor?  Two lunatics?"  Those thoughts repeated themselves with each step, although abbreviated to just "WTF?"   Why waste time with anything else when "WTF?" says it all?

It's a WTF world we live in and PTC is an appropriate response to a WTF world. 

What is PTC?  PTC is not a specific technology, it is not necessarily communications based, it is neither specifically fixed block nor dynamic block technology.  PTC is defined, and by law, by its functions.  It is a signal system that enforces mandatory, positive stop.  It is a system that enforces compliance with signal, timetable, and temporary speed restrictions.  It is a system that prevents train incursion into work zones.  It is a system that will prevent movement of a locomotive through an improperly lined switch.

PTC is not a business solution to a business problem, although nothing messes up asset utilization like a collision; nothing restricts throughput like a derailment.  Still, it's not a business solution to a business problem.  It's a safety solution to a safety problem.  And it should be embraced, welcomed as such.  There isn't an operating rule book on a railroad in the US that doesn't say somewhere, and probably closer to page 1 than page 50,  "Safety is of the utmost importance in the discharge of duty."    OK, so here it is-- PTC.  Expensive.  Extensive.  Demanding.  And of the utmost importance in the discharge of duty.  Beats the hell out of saying "WTF?" every year or two.

I'm for CBTC, communication based train control, too, although not as much as I am for PTC.  But still, I'm no Luddite.  I like technology.  I like CBTC, although in truth, I don't think its greatest potential is in the actual "train control" part of the business.

And with CBTC, unlike PTC, we are talking business-- a business potential based on, if not real-time, at least more timely-- Ron Lindsey of Comarch calls it "on time reporting"-- of train location and velocity.  The problem is that as soon as we railroaders hear the words "train"  "location"  "velocity"  "time,"  we can't help thinking about adding  the words "more"  "closer"  "faster"  and "less."

We shouldn't be blamed for that.  We wouldn't be in this business, we would have never endured the torments of our unendurable bosses until we became unendurable bosses ourselves if we didn't always want to run more trains, more closely together, faster, and in less time.  

And when all those words are put together, we hear those two magic words-- "increased capacity"-- and, well... be still my beating heart.  Increased capacity without building miles and miles of new railroad... think of it.  What was it the temptin' Temptations sang on their first album? "Dream Come True"?  Yep.

Is that really what CBTC promises?   Maybe.  But.... and there's always a but... lots of promises are made and broken in this WTF world. 

At the recent CBTC/PTC Conference sponsored by Railway Age and Parsons several of the presentations on CBTC and PTC concentrated on capacity enhancements possible through the application of CBTC dynamic ["moving"] block technologies to simultaneously increase throughput and maintain safe train separation.

Bombardier made a very interesting presentation of its work on the Madrid Metro #6 line.   One of the project's goals was the ability to support 40 second headways between trains without an allotment for dwell.   Certainly, 40 second headways are achievable when dwell is removed from the system; when all trains are continuously in motion, particularly if maximum train speed is  below 35 mph. 

CBTC and moving block works exceedingly well when all trains are continuously moving.  That's the easy part.  

The dwell is the hard part.  We are very good at managing movement.  It's the non-movement we aren't so good at managing.   

And what did the Madrid installation accomplish? Practically, as opposed to the theoretical 40 second headway, the CBTC system provided the system managers the real time data about excessive dwells that were restricting the throughput, the overall system capacity.

It is, in both passenger and freight, all about dwell.   It's not the braking distances required for higher speed operation that restrict the operation, it's the reason for the braking-- it's the transition to low speed operation in and through yards.  

In yards, everything is about dwell.  Excessive dwell, reduced velocity of track turnover, degrades switching productivity, increases final terminal delays, disrupts connection compliance, and will bring main line operations to a virtual halt.  Sooner or later. 

So... so if CBTC has a great potential, then it's great potential is in facilitating real, and realistically, scheduled operations.   To reach that potential, railroads will have to improve, optimize their yard operations, the approaches to their yards and terminals, and right-size the dwell of cars and trains in those yards.

Or.. as the best railroad superintendent I ever worked for told me when I was a trainmaster at Oak Island Hump, "Make this  yard run right, Dave, and the main line will take care of itself."

Once a terminal rat, always a terminal rat.


dms
May 25, 2009

   

 


   


10:29 pm edt 

Monday, April 13, 2009

JUST A THOUGHT

Or two...

About RSIA 2008:

A.If I were a freight railroad, looking at the hours of service requirements, which clearly were formulated in response to, shall we say politely--er, certain difficulties after some big mergers of Class 1s-- but let's not bring up the past-- So if I were a Class 1 looking at these HOS requirements, I tell you I would seriously look at adjusting my hauls so that every crew could:

1. swap enroute with another train crew operating in the opposite direction so that everyone is at back at their home terminal in 10 hours.

2. reach an away from home terminal, drop their train, cut their power, couple on to a train ready to go back to their home terminal.

I know I'm a dinosaur, but this sounds a lot to me like the current rage for optimum asset utilization.

If I were a commuter railroad where everybody does get back to their home terminal, I would:

1. do everything possible to consolidate sign up points, starting locations, and  extra lists.

2. work with my resident labor organizations to hammer out some operating agreements before the unpredictability of the RSAC process takes hold.

B.  Looking at the PTC, risk analysis, and technology review and incorporation requirements of RSIA 2008, I would--

1. unload this myth that says PTC is going to improve operating capacity and throughput.  Signal systems did not originate with demand for increased throughput.  They originated and are organized around safe separation of trains; with that safe separation governed by the distance to ZERO velocity.   From that point of initiation, origination on, comes the century long struggle between maintaining safe separation and facilitating throughput, but there is no necessary connection.

Of course you could argue that safe separation and throughput are joined at the hip because, after all, nothing screws up throughput more than a collision; nothing messes with optimal asset utilization like a wrecked locomotive-- but in so arguing then you have to accept, and believe me I do, that capacity constraints are not solely, nor simply, the responsibility or the signal design, nor are they amenable solely through changes in signal design.

2. I might, if I were a freight railroad, begin by separating out the requirements of PTC--  stop signal, speed, work area prohibition enforcements. Then if I were a freight railroad I might calculate the impact of laying those requirements over my present signal design, increasing the distance for stopping by usual 8 seconds of free-run time.  Then I might see how that impacts my throughput.

I might look at using wireless systems, linked to GPS,  to identify, report, monitor actual train speeds, and enforce the temporary speed, civil speed, and work area restrictions of my railroad without out ripping out and relocating all my insulated joints, utilizing the GPS to give an 8 second preview to absorb and account for the free run time. 

I might do that.  I actually might do the same thing if I were a commuter railroad.  It is, after all, the same physics for freight and passenger, the same 4' 8.5" gage.  And the wireless/GPS system could be configured to distinguish between passenger, and its braking distance, and freight and its braking distance; might take some changes to the waysides in order to bring the fixed signal into accordance with the PTC authorization but.... better yet, let's do away with the fixed wayside signals, except at interlockings.

And I might read closely the paper by Ron Lindsey, available on the FRA website, "An Analysis of the Opportunities for Wireless Technologies in Passenger and Freight Rail Operations."

2. I might, if I were a freight railroad, keep my powder dry when it comes to CBTC and moving block technologies.  I don't want to rain on anybody's parade [sure I do], but maritime container traffic has plunged, with Maersk operating its newest, largest ships at  half capacity, routing transport from Asia to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope, adding some 5500 miles to the trip but saving $600,000 in Suez Canal tolls.

Traffic was what? down 12% in February?  And sure it will recover, like a dead cat bounces when you drop it out a window, but the future is not so bright that we all better put on the SPF 30 sunblock and our Ray-bans. 

3. I might, if I were a freight, or a commuter railroad, subject CBTC to some close, close scrutiny if the impulse behind its installation on my/your railroad is throughput and capacity because... because CBTC will do little, if anything to resolve the problem of overtakes, of high speed traffic following lower speed traffic; because the governing principle of all signal design is, will remain, and must be, safe train separation, the distance to zero velocity. 

So... unless all my commuter trains do pretty much the same thing, make the same stops, then my CBTC boost is effectively compromised once the first train makes a stop, and dwells, and dwells, and dwells... you get the picture?  Yes, we see, sang the Shangri-Las. (He's good-bad, but he's not evil).

If I were a commuter railroad,  I would look at the improvement to performance I might get from additional cab signal aspects [provided I had cab signals/speed control.  If I didn't have cab signal/speed control, well let's just say I wouldn't spend a penny on anything else, not locomotives, not control centers, not station platforms, until I did] as compared to the cost/benefit of CBTC.

I mean, go figure, I'm running trains at 2 minute headways at 75 mph.  Train 1 stops at Yankee Stadium in the PM rush on a night in August.

The opponent is that hated, vicious, venal, demented, arrogant team from Boston called-ugh-the Red Sox.  One thousand Yankee fans and 100 Boston fans who have taken the New Haven line to Grand Central get off the train.  One of the Boston fans, drunk of course, are there any other kind?, says something unrepeatable about Derek Jeter's mother, following it up with a reference to A-Rod's conversion to Judaism after his engagement to Madonna.  A dispute erupts, compounded by the fact that the Boston fan is trying to dodge the tariff and hasn't purchased a ticket, which is only collected after the train arrives at the station.

Gee, thank God  that CBTC allows us to follow on right up this train's tuchas.

Just some thoughts.  Copyrighted by the way.  Don't use them without my permission.

Of course you can steal them.  Claim they're yours when reviewing PTC, HOS, CBTC proposals.  But we'll know,  won't we?

David Schanoes
April 13, 2009
Always a pleasure, never a chore

4:18 pm edt 

2010.03.01 | 2009.06.01 | 2009.05.01 | 2009.04.01

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Managing a railroad never requires anything less than complete commitment to the task always at hand-- delivering the advertised service.

The current economic and regulatory environments make these challenges particularly acute.  The impacts of the Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008 [HR 2095] will be deep and extensive.

Developing the right plan to meet this changing environment is invaluable.  Developing the right plan the can be executed at the ground level to handle these challenges is priceless.

 

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