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New York, NY USA dmschanoes@ten90solutions.com
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Big Deal On Michigan Avenue
Last week, APTA held its annual rail conference in Chicago. The "home
terminal" for the conference was the now Hilton, formerly Conrad Hilton, Hotel on Michigan Avenue.
I was born, raised, and hired out in Chicago. I have repressed most of those memories with some success,
so I didn't realize where I was, the former Conrad Hilton Hotel, until I was actually there, inside the hotel's Grand Ballroom,
and then it struck me.
"You know what?" I said to my wife who had accompanied me for the purpose of visiting
several close friends [unlike myself, my wife actually makes, and maintains, friendships], "The last time I was
this close to this hotel I was being chased by the police."
My wife, looking around at the luxury of the Grand
Ballroom, replied, " I can see why."
I meant, of course, the Democratic Convention of 1968. She
meant everything else.
Not that I have any regrets, although she probably does. But that's life.
Anyway, the conference was, as conferences are meant to be, enthusiastic, upbeat, optimistic, eager over the prospects for
our industry, and I too, being part of that industry, am enthusiastic, upbeat, optimistic, eager about our future prospects
despite the fact that a crusty, cynical, jaded heart beats underneath my perpetual sunny smile and "glad to meet
you" exterior.
There's a little problem, called money.
When just a youth, I once made
the mistake of asking my girlfriend "what's money to a relationship like ours?"
"Concrete," she answered. Obviously, I am attracted to intelligent women.
Actually, I think
I'm more enthusiastic about some things than many in the industry and less enthusiastic than many about other things.
I am really enthusiastic about PTC. In fact, I might be the most enthusiastic person I know when it comes to PTC, an
enthusiasm that is shared, I suspect, by those who have had the experience of answering the phone at 10 PM
and getting the news that nobody ever wants to get.
And I think I'm less enthusiastic about High Speed Rail
than many in the industry. Not that I'm not all in favor of, don't positively love HSR. I am and
I do. Love it. Use it. Use the Eurostar between Paris and London. The TGV in France. Thalys
between Brussels and Paris. The high speed between Milan and Bologna. Love it.
But there's this thing
called money...ask my former girlfriend, who now lives in California, San Francisco, I think.
The APTA Rail Conference
was very enthusiastic about HSR, but we must keep in mind that most of those attending the APTA Conference were consultants,
contractors, design and engineering firms. Vendors. No offense intended.
The Obama administration
has earmarked $8 billion in the ARRA for the study and development of HSR corridors in the US, with a further $1 billion to
follow in each of the next 5 years. I believe that if asked, the APTA conference general session would have sung a verse
or two of "Happy Days Are Here Again."
I don't sing. I can dance. I had to dance,
attending the University of Michigan, 40 miles from Detroit, during the peak of the Motown era, but I'm not a singer.
Me? Looking around at the economy, I might be dancing to the tune of "The Dead Cat Bounce."
Eight
billion dollars is a lot of money. Even for my ex-girlfriend. But when it comes to HSR, it's not really all that
much. A dollar just doesn't go as far as it once did, especially when operating speed targets are 220-240 mph.
The great state of Florida has plans for HSR corridor operations between Orlando and Tampa. With a geography
more friendly to controlling engineering costs, the estimated cost per mile for the corridor still weights in at approximately
$27 million per mile.
And then there's California, where my ex-girlfriend, she of the concrete love, lives.
California is serious about HSR, so serious it has authorized a bond issue, backed by the full faith and credit of the
state and the tax payments of its citizens. California is currently facing a $24 billion deficit, but this is the
US of A, and California of all places. We think no little thoughts. California. The Golden State. Surf City.
Jan and Dean. San Joaquin Valley. Pelican Bay. Low-riders. Hollywood. Big trees.
Earthquakes. Mudslides. Real estate.
No little thoughts can be permitted when
it comes to HSR, where costs for the LA-San Francisco HSR corridor are estimated in the $70 million per mile range. Seriously.
500 miles LA-SF; $34 billion. I'm rounding up, not making it up.
And I'm all for it, except...
Except you have to do it right, and I'm a bit concerned. I'm a bit concerned when the California plan calls
for peak hour service in the corridor with 6 minute head-ways in each direction between the two cities. I'm a bit concerned
when I estimate the off peak service at 15-20 minute headways based on the ridership projections for 2030.
Why
am I concerned? I'm concerned since, with a dedicated right-of-way, with the complete separation of this service from
other rail service, the HSR authorities' access to the accumulated and ongoing expertise of US railroading will be limited.
I'm concerned because I think that the separation of passenger and commuter services from the freight railroads has already
reduced the experience and expertise of the operating personnel, including the operating officers, in the passenger and commuter
services.
I'm concerned that, perhaps, the HSR agencies will rely a bit too much on the studies provided by the
consultants and the designers. I'm concerned, because you get what you pay for, that when the HSR agencies
ask for economies, cost savings, reductions, they will get exactly what they asked for without a thorough understanding of
the impacts on operating performance. Every operating decision is a financial decision. We were taught
that. But how many realize that every financial decision is an operating decision?
I'm concerned that with
those peak and off peak head-ways, there simply is no way to perform the necessary track maintenance on a two track system.
At a Q&A session, the California HSR presenter stated the studies have shown with "limited" areas of 3rd track,
maintenance can be performed properly on the remaining 2 track system. I'm concerned.
I'm concerned
because with a 2.5 hour trip time, and with peak periods lasting for 3 hours, with turn around times on HSR trainsets nowhere
near what can be achieved in lower speed EMU operations, I estimate that there must be 35 HSR trainsets at both LA and San
Francisco in order provide the peak and the first hour of post-peak service.
I believe that HSR peak service will
required terminals with at least 12 platform tracks, 5-6 running or "feeder" tracks from main lines andyards
to the passenger terminal, with yards themselves capable of storing 30-40 trainsets. That's some big interlocking we're
talking about. Even for California.
Not that I don't think any of this is impossible; can't be done; shouldn't
be done. I just want it done right. Concretely. And that is going to take more than money. It's going to
take execution
Matt Rose of the BNSF has said that he hopes the HSR is dedicated to a single showcase project. He's
right.
Always liked the Santa Fe. That railroad has always exhibited its commitment to the industry
as an industry whether it be freight service, passenger service, and now high speed rail.
DMS
06/23/09
11:33 am edt
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Managing a railroad
never requires anything less than complete commitment to the task always at hand-- delivering the advertised service. The current economic and regulatory environments make these challenges particularly acute.
The impacts of the Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008 [HR 2095] will be deep and extensive. Developing the right plan to meet this changing environment is invaluable. Developing
the right plan the can be executed at the ground level to handle these challenges is priceless.
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David Schanoes
dmschanoes@ten90solutions.com
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